German Weekend

[chriscol]

rec so far this season (pushes rec as no play)

1. Bundesliga 102-93 +6.51 units
2. Bundesliga 71-52 + 15.05 units
Regionalliga 62-31 +24.70 units

Total 235- 176 + 46.26 units

Last day in 1.Bundesliga today and pretty much is still undecided.

Nürnberg- Schalke: Schalke pk @2.12 and over 2.5,3 @1.89 !! 2 units!!

big match: Schalke has secured at least champ league qualification. to get directly in champ league they have to pass Bremen for 2nd. which means they have to win and Bremen to loose (Bremen plays at Leverkusen,which plays for uefa-cup, so it is possible)
Nürnberg plays against relegation and has to win, with Bielefeld not winning (Bielefeld at STuttgart, which has to win itself, so a win should be 80 % save for Nürnberg).
In general Schalke is the better team, they are 8-2-1 in last 11 games and coming of two important wins. they have a safety net with 3rd spot clinched so not the "big " pressure.
Nürnberg is facing relegation and lost last week at Berlin. They only showed decent games at home lately, which is their only chance here. they have not lost at home in last 10 games, but included 6 draws. That shows together with the lack of away performances that they are not a solid team and all and might suffer under the pressure.
Therefore in a match where everything can happen i like Schalke at pk.
Best szenario gor Nürnberg would be an early Bremen lead in other game then Schalke might let go,but i dont count on that.

The over is the much better play. Although both teams are not particular over teams they are both in a situation here where they HAVE TO WIN. a draw doesnt help. so if one take the lead , even 2-0, the other team will open up even more...we even might see an empty netter
3 goals at least here.

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[chriscol]

Leverkusen- Bremen over 3,3.5 @ 1.95

tough game here. Leverkusen in a 4-way tie for 4th-7th. (4th+5th go UEFA, 6th goes UI-cup). they struggle overall lately and look tired, but won last weekend to have a chance here. if they win they have UEFA-cup if draw they have to hope.
generally they are very offensive minded lately with 8 of last 10 games at least at 3 goals.
Bremen needs a draw to clinch 2nd and is in great form winning 6 of last 7.
everything can happen here in this game alone. if Schalke is loosing some home, Bremen might even let go.
But ofcause the over with Bremen is always a must although i dont like numbers over 3, but still with two ffensive team i have to take it.

Hannover- Cottbus: Hannover -0.5,-1 @ 1.85

Both team with nothing to play for, but Cottbus saved the league last week, so there will be lack of focus and lots of celebration during the week. For Hannover it s still the last macth at home for the sason and they have lately produced nice results at home. against a inferior not motivated team it s a nice chance for a gift to the fans.

 

[chriscol]

Dortmund- WOlfsburg : WOlfsburg pk,-0.5 @1.90

Dortmund has nothing to play for. Wolfsburg is one of the 4 teams tied for 4th-7th. a win gives them a chance for UEFA and will clinch UI-cup , which would be big for them. They got in this situation by a strong finish during last weeks, coming off a big 4-0 home win over rival Stuttgart.
They are playing inspired offensive football right now and have a very good chance for the win here.

Hamburg- Karlsruhe: Hamburg -1.5 @ 1.98 !!2 units !!

i dont care if Hamburg struggled lately. a win at home brings them into UEFA-cup. Karlsruhe has nothing to play for since a long time and plays like that with only one win in last 10 games.
Hamburg s main problem is that the team looked very tired after log season, but today at home in last game they will all be running and that should be enough for a nice win.

Bochum- Rostock: Bochum -0.5,-1 @2.0 !! 2 units!!

in theory nothing to play for. Rostock is crashing down, lossing all games lately and got relegated last week. Bochum sits in midfield, but has one big thing to go for. they are sitting one point ahead of local rival Dortmund and to finish ahead of them is a big motivation and they are talking about it. it led to a nich away win at Karlsruhe last week and should be enough for another home win over weak Rostock.

 

[chriscol]

Regionalliga Nord

Wolfsburg- Ahlen: AHlen -1.5 @ 1.88 !! 2 units!!

first vs. Last. complete mismatch

Braunschweig- Düsseldorf: Düsseldorf pk,+0.5 @ 1.86

wrong team favored in a pretty open match

Essen- Verl: Essen -1,-1.5 @1.86 !! 2 units!!

Essen on a run with must win, Verl lost all hope.

Berlin- Magdeburg: Berlin -0.5 @ 1.82 !! 2 units!!

Berlin 3 wins in a row going for promotion, Magdeburg struggling right now.

 

[chriscol]

Reghionalliga SÜd

Elversberg- Frankfurt: Frankfurt pk,-0.5 @ 1.96

much better team here going for promotion

Ingolstadt- München: Ingolstadt -1,-0.5 @ 1.85

same here and the better team has home field

thats it for today

BOL to all

 

[joeyfitzclick]

Thanks for painting a clear picture for those of us that dont watch this league closely.

 

[chriscol]

Last day in 2. Bundesliga today and lot s to be decided.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
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First 3 teams promote. Gladbach and Köln already clinched. <o></o>
Hoffenheim, Mainz and Freiburg still have a chance.<o></o>
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Last 4 teams get relegated. Jena , Paderborn and Aue already eliminated. So it s about one spot for Kaiserslautern, Osnabrück, Offenbach and Augsburg.<o></o>
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Hoffenheim- Fürth: Hoffenheim –1,-1.5 @ 1.85
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Situation is easy. If Hoffenheim wins they promote, if they draw then Mainz should not win.<o></o>
Hoffenheim is probably the most focused and determined team going for promotion. They are coming straight from Regionalliga, but have the highest budget in the league and have put on a big “long term concept” to get to Bundesliga with lot s of money and resources involved by their owner, who is the boss of SAP.<o></o>
Back to football they are a strong home team and are very capable to get the home win here. They drew at relegation troubled Offenbach last week and a late equalizer kept them from promotion last week, but they looked determined thru the match. <o></o>
Fürth meanwhile, although winning last week at home with last minute goal, let s it go since being out of promotion race. They are a weak away team being winless in last 5. Only motivation I can see is a possible poor against rich mentality, but I doubt it s really the case and even if so that it will be enough to get a draw.<o></o>
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Kaiserslautern- Köln: Köln +1 @ 1.95 and over 3 @1.87
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Situation easy here as well: if Kaiserslautern win they stay in league. If they draw either Osnabrück or Augsburg has to loose, if they loose they are out.<o></o>
Köln has promoted last week and they might take this game lightly, but I am playing them for pure value. To get one goal in a total mismatch only for the situation is simply too much IMO. <o></o>
If you look at the teams you have to consider that Kaiserslautern is under big,big pressure (it s not a nobody that would get relegated, but one of the most profilic club in Germany). They struggled with the pressure in the past and the hdc means they have to win by 2 to cover.<o></o>
Köln stated they would not take it easy because of other teams involved, but if they do it might be even more dangerous for Kaiserslautern. Köln is a team which struggles often themselves if they have to make the play, but they are by far the fastest and most dangerous team in counter attack in whole league. With Kaisersluatern needing the win Köln will get those chances, if they want or not and will probably score at least once.<o></o>
That in combination with a desperate home team should also lead to at least 3 goals in total.<o></o>
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Augsburg- Jena: Augsburg –1.5 @2.0
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Augsburg needs a point to stay in league. Jena is relegated and a weak away team.<o></o>
Not sure if they win by 2, but chances are good.<o></o>
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Osnabrück- Offenbach: no play<o></o>
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Just for info: Offenbach need a point to be safe or hope that Kaiserslautern does not win, Osnabrück needs a draw and hope that either Kaiserslauter does not win or Augsbur loose, with a win they are safe.<o></o>
I am leaning home team here at –0.25<o></o>
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Freiburg- Wehen: Freiburg –1,-1.5 @ 1.80 !! 2 units!!
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Freiburg can only promote if they win and Hoffenheim looses and Mainz does not win . very unlikely.<o></o>
But still Freiburg a strong home team will put on a show for their home fans. They are not really disappointed if they don’t go up so it should be a fun day anyway. Wehen lost last 5 games and playing out the string since they saved the league.<o></o>
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Mainz- Pauli: Mainz –1.5 @1.80<o></o>
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Mainz need to win and Hoffenheim not to win. Mainz lost the big match last week at Köln and lost before at home to Aachen. Not good sign for a team playing under pressure. But still they should do their job here as it s still last home game,which they will enjoy. <o></o>
St.Pauli will also not try to do anything to prevent it. After saving league they lost twice 0-2 with terrible performances. They basically celebrating since two weeks and will join the party at Mainz.<o></o>
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2-team ML parlay<o></o>
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Hoffenheim (1.35) and Freiburg (1.38) for a combined 1.86 !! 2 units!!<o></o>

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Regionalliga Nord:<o></o>
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Babelsberg- Oberhausen: Oberhausen –0.5,-1 @ 1.80 !! 2 units!!
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Much better team on a good run going for promotion.<o></o>
Babelsberg nothing to play for.<o></o>
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Bremen- Hamburg: Bremen –1 @ 1.85
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Regionalliga Süd:
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München- Oggersheim: München –2 @ 1.80 !! 2 units!!
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München on a good streak. As I ve stated before they fight big time to get in first 10 spots and playing great.<o></o>
Oggersheim is dead last and should be no match at all.

BOL to all